Well, look. Any ray of hope, however dim, is appreciated at this point.
WASHINGTON – The margin of error of pre-election polls presented to the Israeli public is too large to show an accurate picture of what will unfold on Election Day, an American poll expert told Ynet.
The handling of the large number of undecided voters, which borders on mysterious, and media distortion of survey results make it difficult even for experts to predict what is in store, says Kenneth Goldstein, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin.
Goldstein says that Kadima is expected to win, as all polls predict, but adds it is difficult to determine whether this will be a significant victory or a more marginal one, which will force the Olmert-led party to engage in difficult negotiations en route to forming a coalition.
Reports about Kadima going up or down by one, two, or three mandates are statistically insignificant and constitute "bad journalism," Goldstein told Ynet, and added the Israeli public receives reports that often lack basic facts, without an effort being made to explain the uncertainty of results.
"In almost all reports there's no explanation regarding how pollsters converted the results into the number of seats for each party," he said, adding the practice is opposed to the most basic standards of reporting acceptable in the U.S.
Bad weather and apparent apathy are triggering predictions of extremely low voter turnout tomorrow. Whatever the result, that would be a shame. No, it would be a shande.
