Yes, it seems that the referendum is dead, clearing the way for Ariel Sharon's grand plan to succeed. I know that almost everyone is very happy about this. And it's not fun being a member of such a small minority on such an important issue. There's little doubt in my mind that this disengagement thing is going to be a disaster. A disaster for Israel, a disaster for US foreign policy and a disaster for hopes of peace in the Middle East. But there's this thing: I really, sincerely hope I'm wrong.
One of the questions I always ask myself when I take a position on something is how much I'm being influenced by hope rather than reality. I also ask that question when I see normally rational people taking a position that to me lacks any foundation. Am I missing something? Having read and re-read and parsed and studied the arguments, am I experiencing a cognitive blind spot or are they really processing air? Hope is a powerful influence, and often a very positive one, but if it leads you to jump out of a plane without a parachute because you believe a favorable breeze will carry you gently to the ground, you're probably in trouble.
One of my problems with the whole disengagement proposal is that no one, least of all Ariel Sharon, has offered a single coherent reason how or why it will improve the situation. Some still point to a demographic problem that we now know was largely fabricated. Others continue to insist that there's some kind of "deal" with the Bush administration but no one on either side of that deal will spell out just what it is or how far it can be relied on (does it have something to do with Ma'ale Adumim or is it Iran? Or both?). I pick up some mumbling about increased support from the rest of the world as a result of this gesture, but almost no one will make that prediction out loud with a straight face. And then there's the "we just can't keep doing this" argument.
All of this is interesting, but none of it offers a clue as to what happens next. And unless you're predisposed to think that the 7,500-8,000 Israelis living in Gush Katif and other communities in the Gaza Strip are the equivalent of cattle or sheep or chess pieces, to be moved about and resettled without regard to what, for just about any other population in the world, would be called their human rights, well, unless you're so predisposed, there's a serious moral issue at stake here. These are people who love both the State of Israel and the Land of Israel. Convince them that there's something to be gained by their (considerable) sacrifice, and many of them might willingly participate in their own eviction. But no one's bothered to do that. No one's even bothered to try.
I realize that the political battle on this is pretty much over, and "my" side obviously lost. So now all I can do is indulge in some wishing thinking of my own, and hope that everything will turn out all right. As I did with Oslo over a decade ago. I have very mixed feelings about the civil disobedience that's bound to ensue. While I sympathize with those who will be acting out, I think the overall effect will only be to worsen an already bad situation. I think that, but I'm not sure.
I guess I'm not sure of very much these days.
Update: Here's Caroline Glick's (latest) take.
