I'm not going to be voting in today's Pennsylvania Republican Senatorial election. That's because I'm still a registered Democrat. And that makes me one of a big crowd of Pennsylvanians in the cat bird seat while others chew their nails for the next several hours.
The way I see it, this election is a win/win. One of two candidates is going to join (or re-join) Rick Santorum in the U.S. Senate next January: incumbant Senator Arlen Specter, Republican, or Representative Joe Hoeffel, Democrat. Either way, I'm okay. Because no matter what happens in today's primary election, it almost certainly won't be Pat Toomey.
"Toomey has turned this into a national referendum on the future of the party," said Franklin and Marshall political scientist G. Terry Madonna.
Democrats, who probably could have written off the race if Specter had not been challenged, are delighted at the turn of events. "We've been fortunate in this process," said Brad Woodhouse, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
In the narrowly divided Senate, with partisan control in the balance come November, a chance this fall for Democratic Rep. Joseph M. Hoeffel, no household name himself, to run against Toomey instead of Specter would be a gift. And even if Specter squeaks by, Democrats believe that the Republican incumbent has been forced far enough to the right in the primary fight that his middle-of-the-road patina has been dimmed.
"Arlen Specter has lost his voice," Hoeffel said last week in a conference call with journalists. "Arlen used to be a moderate maverick. For the last three years he's been neither of those things."
I agree, but I'd go back much further than three years. Specter lost his voice after he had the temerity to stick to what were then left of his principles during the Bork nomination hearings and got crucified by his party for it. (That's one of several reasons why I'm still, reluctantly, a registered Democrat, by the way.)
But as hard as the Toomey campaign is trying to pretend otherwise, their man doesn't look too promising against Hoeffel. And Hoeffel's election could tip back the balance of power in Congress, not to mention Pennsylvania's loss of Specter's seniority. For that reason, a lot of Republicans who are otherwise disillusioned with Specter will nonetheless be sucking it in and voting for him today. And I'd guess that many of them aren't admitting it.
Would Specter be a slam dunk against Hoeffel? I don't know. The Hoeffel campaign likes to point out that Lynn Yaekel almost beat Specter in 1992. True, but Yeakel was riding the coattails of Bill Clinton's Presidential landslide and in a year when Specter had recently pissed the hell out of all his left-leaning supporters through his vicious attack on Anita Hill (payback for his "disloyalty" in the Bork affair). And Yeakel still didn't beat him.
Even if John Kerry somehow manages to upset another Bush dynasty, Hoeffel's chances against Specter aren't so good -- if for no other reason than Specter has influence that Hoeffel doesn't and Specter's had enough time to get his name percolated into even the most impervious parts of the Commonwealth.
So I'll be really surprised if Specter loses today, the polls notwithstanding. Surprised, but not too worried. Pennsylvania could do worse than Joe Hoeffel. A lot worse. But we could do a lot better, too.
